Shipping & Shopping
HOLIDAY TRENDS
As retailers gear up for the 2025 holiday shopping season, the playbook looks decidedly different than in past years. With economic uncertainty, higher prices, and shifting import patterns, both shipping and shopping behaviors are evolving—and the ripple effects are already visible.
One major trend: supply chains were on high alert earlier this year. Faced with escalating tariffs and trade-policy uncertainty, many retailers pulled forward their import schedules, bringing in holiday merchandise well ahead of the usual peak. Much of what typically would arrive in Q4 had instead already landed by mid-year. Industry groups noted that with tariff concerns lingering but most holiday merchandise already in stores or warehouses, import cargo volume was expected to experience the usual late-year slowdown in November and December. Ports have seen a noticeable drop in expected container volumes for Q4, reinforcing the idea that the traditional peak shipping rush has been pulled forward into Q2 and Q3.
Mixed consumer signals: spending grows, but anxiety persists.
From a shopping perspective, consumers are showing mixed signals. On one hand, there remains an expectation of increased spending this holiday season. Forecasts suggest that U.S. retail sales for November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year, with overall spending likely to reach roughly $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. This would mark the first time U.S. holiday retail sales surpass the trillion-dollar threshold.
On the other hand, consumers remain cautious as economic concerns persist. Surveys show that a large majority of shoppers expect higher prices for holiday goods, and more than half believe the economy may weaken over the coming months. These concerns have shaped how consumers approach the season: Value now sits at the top of the priority list. Across income groups, value-seeking behaviors are widespread, with many shoppers switching stores, hunting for promotions, and substituting lower-priced items to stretch budgets further.
Retailers are responding by going beyond discounts.
They are focusing on delivering value through quality, convenience, strong customer experience, and improved technology. Research highlights that brands capable of offering value beyond the price tag—giving customers more benefit than expected for what they pay—are the ones most likely to capture additional spending.
The combination of earlier imports and strong stocking is already shaping the shipping side of the holiday business. Because so many goods arrived earlier in the year, the latter half of Q4 is expected to see lower-than-normal import volumes. Analysts anticipate year-over-year declines in container traffic for November and December, pointing to a subdued logistic peak compared to the traditional holiday build-up. This shift means a different operational rhythm: fewer late-season surges and less last-minute freight pressure, but also reduced flexibility for retailers needing quick restocks if certain products over-perform.
For retailers and consumers alike, this year’s holiday season is about balancing preparedness with restraint. Retailers stocked early to mitigate tariff risks and ensure availability; consumers are prepared to spend but with heightened attention to value, deals, and careful budgeting. With the trillion-dollar benchmark potentially within reach for holiday sales, a strong season could offer a boost to the broader economy even as cost pressures remain.
In the end, shipping trends indicate a supply chain that moved proactively to avoid disruptions, while shopping trends reveal a consumer base that is selective but still engaged. Retailers that are well-prepared on both the logistics side and the value proposition side stand to perform strongly this season.